Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...

Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2003 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are unbiased and weakly, but not strongly efficient. Besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality are found among...

Since 1990 the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) uses a leading indicator in preparing short-term forecasts for the Dutch economy. This paper describes some recent methodological innovations as well as the current structure and empirical results of the revised CPB leading...

We study the properties of generalized stochastic gradient (GSG) learning in forward-looking models. We examine how the conditions for stability of standard stochastic gradient (SG) learning both differ from and are related to E-stability, which governs stability under least squares learning. SG...

Wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisgewinnung liegt ein Denken in Modellen zugrunde. Um dem wissenschaftlichen Anspruch nach Wahrheit gerecht zu werden, ist es erforderlich, Modelle hinsichtlich ihrer Güte zu beurteilen. Während für empirische Theorien zahlreiche (zumeist statistische) Gütemaße...

We analyze if and to what extent fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influences or more structural factors have contributed to the low levels of US bond yields over the last few years. For that purpose, we start with a general model of interest rate determination. The empirical part...

Das ifo Institut begleitet seit seiner Gründung im Jahr 1949 das aktuelle Wirtschaftsgeschehen durch seine regelmäßigen Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturprognosen. Im Jahr 2007 hat das ifo Institut zur methodischen Basis seiner Konjunkturforschung einen ersten Sammelband mit ausgewählten...