This paper outlines a framework based on microdata and a structural model to gauge credit risk in banks' exposures to non-financial firms. Sectoral risk factors are accounted for using a multi-factor model. We use expected and unexpected losses as indicators of credit risk stemming from the...

The economic losses inflicted by the pandemic shock caused severe capital shortfalls for many corporates, which led to public measures being adopted to support firms’ recapitalization and the rebalancing of their financial structure. However, evidence about the dynamics and features of these...

This work analyses the main trends in bond financing by Italian non-financial firms and its role in relation to bank credit across different economic phases. The first part of the analysis refers to the 2008-2019 period, characterized by both crisis and recovery episodes, while the second part...

We analyse the impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy shocks on corporate credit risk as measured by firms' probabilities of default (PDs) for the four largest euro area countries. We estimate the impact of shocks on one-year PDs using local projections (LP). For the period 2014-19, we find...

This paper analyzes firms' difficulties in accessing credit before and during the crisis, by focusing on two of their characteristics: financial fragility and growth prospects. Our econometric analysis indicates that fragile financial conditions were associated with a much higher than average...

The financial crisis that started in August 2007 has led to a worsening in the conditions of credit supply to customers. Since the second half of 2008, several measures have been adopted in order to sustain access to credit for both firms and households, such as debt moratoria, provisions of...

Italy is the European country where firms with fewer than 10 employees account for the largest share of value added and employment. On the basis of data from the company balance sheets and the Central Credit Register during the period 2003-2010, this work contributes to the analysis of these...

The paper evaluates the impact of the guarantees provided by the Italian scheme Fondo di Garanzia on the access to credit for small and medium enterprises. The study exploits the mechanism that assigns the guarantees, which is based on a scoring system to assess eligibility. By using regression...

Nel 2015 i prestiti bancari sono cresciuti per le imprese di maggiore dimensione mentre hanno continuato a contrarsi per quelle più piccole; questo divario si osserva anche per le aziende appartenenti allo stesso settore di attività economica o con condizioni di bilancio simili. Stime...