Barnes, Michelle L.; Gumbau-Brisa, Fabià; Olivei, … - 2012 - This version: December 2012
a change in potential GDP, the equilibrium unemployment rate, or the use of labor's intensive margin. …Using U.S. real-time data, we show that changes in the unemployment rate unexplained by Okun's Law have significant … predictive power for GDP data revisions. A positive (negative) error in Okun's Law in real time implies that GDP will be later …