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forecasting ability has been compared to that of a linear univariate benchmark (ARIMA) model. Main forecast diagnostics have been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005449468
-term relationship. We finally conclude by comparing the forecasting ability of these two approaches with classical models such as Random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537606
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537788
This paper explores the ability of common risk factors to predict the dynamics of US and UK interest rate swap spreads within a linear and a non-linear framework. We reject linearity for the US and UK swap spreads in favour of a regime-switching smooth transition vector autoregressive (STVAR)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005416692
horizons, the STVAR model increases its forecasting ability over the linear models, whereas the NN model does not outperform …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005416707
horizons, the STVAR model increases its forecasting ability over the linear models, whereas the NN model does not outperform …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423035
different types of econometric models for oil price forecasting. Several specifications have been proposed in the economic …). The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should … common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using static and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423181
The Multiplicative Error Model introduced by Engle (2002) for non-negative valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with positive support. In this paper we propose a multivariate extension of such a model, by taking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005731544
We assess the power of artificial neural network models as forecasting tools for monthly inflation rates for 28 OECD … countries. For short out-of-sample forecasting horizons, we find that, on average, for 45% of the countries the ANN models were … models can also serve as a credible tool for forecasting inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005748075
The paper theoretically and empirically investigates the effect of changes in national labourmarket conditions on regional growth from the point of view of local economies. The mechanism of efficiency wage is introduced to a growth model and it is argued that local regions belonging to richer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005748083