Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models … models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … to individual models' forecasts. Our results point to three important conclusions. First, the forecasting accuracy of the …

have been shown to improve forecasting models for various economic and financial series. In the aftermath of the global … financial crisis, modeling and forecasting mortgage demand and subsequent approvals have become a central issue in the banking … number of new mortgage approvals and markedly improve their nowcasting and forecasting performance. …

during unstable periods, such as the Great Recession, but also remain over more tranquil periods. …

Competition models. Their relative merits in explaining and forecasting inflation are investigated theoretically and empirically … successful inflation forecasting. …

as benchmark. Finally, we replicate the forecasting experiment including as predictors both an indicator of unemployment …

This paper is concerned with problem of variable selection and forecasting in the presence of parameter instability …. There are a number of approaches proposed for forecasting in the presence of breaks, including the use of rolling windows or … variable selection and forecasting stages. In this study, we investigate whether or not we should use weighted observations at …

. Forecasting from such a model assuming 'no structural break' and 'correct model' is tantamount to ignoring important aspects of …) a random walk model. Optimal IC approach, though computational intensive, outperforms in forecasting next period …