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have been shown to improve forecasting models for various economic and financial series. In the aftermath of the global … financial crisis, modeling and forecasting mortgage demand and subsequent approvals have become a central issue in the banking … number of new mortgage approvals and markedly improve their nowcasting and forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030090
forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor … on euro-area data show that the now- and forecasting performance of our new model is superior to that of the subset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566828
as benchmark. Finally, we replicate the forecasting experiment including as predictors both an indicator of unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012147303
during unstable periods, such as the Great Recession, but also remain over more tranquil periods. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119825
. Forecasting from such a model assuming "no structural break" and "correct model" is tantamount to ignoring important aspects of …) a random walk model. Optimal IC approach, though computational intensive, outperforms in forecasting next period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012040055
This research aims at exploring whether simple trading strategies developed using state-ofthe-art Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can guarantee more than the risk-free rate of return or not. For this purpose, the direction of S&P 500 Index returns on every 6th day (SPYRETDIR6) and magnitude of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012432999
selecting the best forecasting model class in finite samples of practical relevance. Flanking such a horse race by predictive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011895825
the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901421
Forecast models with large cross-sections are often subject to overparameterization leading to unstable parameter estimates and hence inaccurate forecasts. Recent articlessuggest that a large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with sufficient prior information dominates competing approaches....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877596
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877728