A risk management strategy that is designed to be robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), in the sense of selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models, was proposed in McAleer et al. (2010c). The robust forecast is based on the median of the...

A risk management strategy is proposed as being robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility...

This paper mainly focuses on the correlation between live hedge funds return and their value at risk (VaR), which is based on the historical data from May 2000 to April 2010. The authors adopt portfolio level analyses and fund level cross-sectional regression, and find that there is significant...

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time-varying) non-central co-moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the Method of Moments for a carefully...

Value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting generally relies on a parametric density function of portfolio returns that ignores higher moments or assumes them constant. In this paper, we propose a simple approach to forecasting of a portfolio VaR. We employ the Gram-Charlier expansion (GCE) augmenting the...

This study analyzes various measures of the downside beta of stocks. Downside beta is sometimes defined and estimated in different ways. Theoretically, an approach based on the mean-semi-variance equilibrium model appears superior. Two known alternative approaches are not consistent with the...

This paper examines Value at Risk by applying GARCH-EVT-Copula model and finds the optimal portfolio for the precious metal. The 4,077 precious metal price observations are collected from 3rd January 2000 to 18th August 2015, traded in the London Metal Exchange, and all prices are traded in US...

We forecast portfolio risk for managing dynamic tail risk protection strategies, based on extreme value theory, expectile regression, Copula-GARCH and dynamic GAS models. Utilizing a loss function that overcomes the lack of elicitability for Expected Shortfall, we propose a novel Expected...

This paper develops a high-frequency risk measure, the Liquidity-adjusted Intraday Value at Risk (LIVaR). Our objective is to explicitly consider the endogenous liquidity dimension associated with order size. Taking liquidity into consideration when using intraday data is important because...

Based on intraday data for a large cross-section of individual stocks and exchange traded funds, we show that short-term as well as long-term fluctuations of realized market and average idiosyncratic higher moments risks are priced in the cross-section of asset returns. Specifically, we find...