The paper provides estimates of the euro-area output gap, based on a relatively standard medium scale DSGE model estimated recursively with Bayesian techniques over the period 1985-2016. The main findings can be summarized as follows. First, our measure of output gap identifies episodes of...

This paper aims at assessing the macroeconomic and distributional impact of the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), which translates the Next Generation EU into action. We use a large-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model adapted to capture the effects of the NRRP...

A Capital Markets Union (CMU) is the great hope of European policymakers. The plan for a CMU tries to reduce the reliance of European investors on banks and build up a market-based risk-sharing channel between member states. Our empirical analysis raises doubts that this can be achieved through...

The aim of this research is to estimate a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) for the euro area, core and periphery. The estimation is performed with Bayesian techniques using eleven macroeconomic time series. The model implements an automatic fiscal transfer...

The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented worldwide event with a massive impact on the economic system. The first Western country that had to face the COVID-19 crisis was Italy, which therefore represents a natural “case study.” By using the microdata and granular policy information...