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Beyond quantified ignorance : rebuilding rationality without the bias bias
Brighton, Henry - 2019
If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely … theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of this rebuilding process is optimality. Once we view optimality as a … formal implication of quantified uncertainty rather than an ecologically meaningful objective, the rationality question …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011990913
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Statistical foundations of ecological rationality
Brighton, Henry - 2020
If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely … theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of this rebuilding process is optimality. Once we view optimality as a … formal implication of quantified uncertainty rather than an ecologically meaningful objective, the rationality question …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159880
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Statistical foundations of ecological rationality
Brighton, Henry - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 14 (2020) 2020-2, pp. 1-32
If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely … theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of this rebuilding process is optimality. Once we view optimality as a … formal implication of quantified uncertainty rather than an ecologically meaningful objective, the rationality question …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160884
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Machine Learning at Central Banks
Chakraborty, Chiranjit - 2017
We introduce machine learning in the context of central banking and policy analyses. Our aim is to give an overview broad enough to allow the reader to place machine learning within the wider range of statistical modelling and computational analyses, and provide an idea of its scope and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948433
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Evaluating Performance of Regression Machine Learning Models Using Multiple Error Metrics in Azure Machine Learning Studio
Botchkarev, Alexei - 2018
Data driven companies effectively use regression machine learning methods for making predictions in many sectors. Cloud-based Azure Machine Learning Studio (MLS) has a potential of expediting machine learning experiments by offering a convenient and powerful integrated development environment....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919484
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Does “Okun’s Law” state a Pi:1 ratio? Toward a harmonic interpretation of why Okun’s Law works
Albers, Scott; Albers, Andrew L. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2013
In Albers & Albers (Spring, 2013) we demonstrated that the historic development of U.S. real GNP, 1869-present, may be structured in recurring 14-year periods. A steady-state rate of growth of 3.4969% is thereby calculated, generating an increase in real GNP proportional to the famous “Golden...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260122
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Seeing in the Dark : A Machine-Learning Approach to Nowcasting in Lebanon
Tiffin, Andrew - 2016
Macroeconomic analysis in Lebanon presents a distinct challenge. For example, long delays in the publication of GDP data mean that our analysis often relies on proxy variables, and resembles an extended version of the 'nowcasting' challenge familiar to many central banks. Addressing this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012993727
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NEURAL NETWORK PRINCIPLES TO CLASSIFY ECONOMIC DATA
Raluca-Mariana, STEFAN; Mariuta, SERBAN - In: Revista Economica 63.4-5 (2012) 4-5, pp. 223-233
The increased globalization makes every country more and more responsible for its actions that are meant to support the price stability and the fiscal position sustainability in an unpredictable world. Decisions makers can provide the right solutions to overcome the latest global economic crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010602650
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Rationality of Belief. Or: Why Bayesianism is Neither Necessary nor Sufficient for Rationality
Gilboa, Itzhak; Postlewaite, Andrew; Schmeidler, David - Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University - 2004
Economic theory reduces the concept of rationality to internal consistency. The practice of economics, however …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005762708
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Toward a cognitive science of markets: Economic agents as sense-makers
Johnson, Samuel G. B. - 2019
Behavioral economics characterizes decision-makers using psychologically-informed models. Cognitive science produces psychologically-informed models. Why don't these disciplines talk more? Here, the author presents several arguments for why cognitive science should inform behavioral economics -...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011984439