Showing 111 - 120 of 56,526
The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and … effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy … heterogeneous expectations model with a performance-based evolutionary selection among heterogeneous forecasting heuristics to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326142
Notwithstanding the recognized importance of traders' expectations in characterizing the observed market dynamics, for … the emergence and coordination of expectations in a pure exchange framework. We largely base our study on previous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328437
We present results of an experiment on expectation formation in an asset market. Participants to our experiment must provide forecasts of the stock future return to computerized utility-maximizing investors, and are rewarded according to how well their forecasts perform in the market. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328471
theories have assumed that the U-shape is caused by unmet expectations that are felt painfully in midlife but beneficially … abandoned and experienced with less regret during old age. In a unique panel of 132,609 life satisfaction expectations matched … support theories that unmet expectations drive the age U-shape in wellbeing. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328987
This paper analyses retirement expectations and outcomes using the two waves of the UK Retirement Survey, undertaken in … 1988-89 and 1994. We argue that responses to questions on expectations are not straightforward to interpret where … individuals are asked to report point expectations. As in the studies for the US by Bernheim, the evidence here suggests that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010330344
We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a novel set of facts: 1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the very long run; 2) the shape of the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333635
candidate is expectations: what people expect could affect how they feel about what actually occurs. In a real-effort experiment …, we manipulate the rational expectations of subjects and check whether this manipulation influences their effort provision …-based reference-dependent preferences: if expectations are high, subjects work longer and earn more money than if expectations are low. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333977
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010335142
We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420579
Biased longevity expectations will lead to suboptimal decisions regarding saving, retirement, annuitization and health …, with consequences for wellbeing in old age. Systematic differences in the accuracy of longevity expectations may partly … veracity of expectations are due to the less educated and cognitively able responding less to changes in objective mortality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011288406