The HAR model dominates current volatility forecasting. This model implies a restricted lag approach, with three parameters accounting for an AR(22) structure. This paper uses the Lasso method, which selects a parsimonious lag structure, while allowing both a flexible lag structure and lags...

High level of unemployment persistence is important for Iran’s policy makers not only becauseof its weakening impacts on the whole economy, but also due to its social, political, and culturalconsequences for the government stability. This paper tests the dynamics and hysteresis of theIran’s...

Jump models switch infrequently between states to fit a sequence of data while taking the ordering of the data into account. We propose a new framework for joint feature selection, parameter and state-sequence estimation in jump models. Feature selection is necessary in high-dimensional settings...

The authors describe a new statistical concept called relevance from a conceptual and mathematical perspective, and based on their mathematical framework, they present a unified theory of relevance, regressions, and event studies. They also include numerical examples of how relevance is used to...

We study the sensitivity of the leverage effect to changes in the volatilityand the price, showing the existence of an analytical link between the latterand the price-leverage covariation in settings with, respectively, stochasticand level-dependent volatility. From the financial standpoint, the...

Sustainable development is the goal of every nation. For this reason, achieving rapid and continuous economic growth is imperative and steps should be taken to play a strong role by identifying and accelerating the performance of the areas that affect it the most. This paper explores the role of...

We augment the HAR model with additional information channels to forecast realized volatility of WTI futures prices. These channels include stock markets, sentiment indices, commodity and FX markets, and text-based Google indices. We then apply four differing machine learning techniques to...

In this study, we present a combinatory chaos analysis of daily wavelet-filtered (denoised) S&P 500 returns (2000–2020) compared with respective surrogate datasets, Brownian motion returns and a Lorenz system realisation. We show that the dynamics of the S&P 500 return series consist of an...

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Over the past 20 years, the Chinese authorities have undertaken wide-ranging reforms of their exchange and trade systems that have steadily reduced the role of planning and increased the importance of market forces. As these reforms have taken root, relative prices and domestic and foreign...