forecast oil prices out-of-sample up to three months. Two of the models are based on the VAR methodology and consider … fundamental factors like the net long position and oil inventories. The third variant is a pure futures model. It is shown that …The present paper presents three different short-term oil models on a weekly basis. With these models we try to …

implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on … the implications of the model through a Structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) that separates non-OPEC and OPEC … uctuations in oil prices, which have left unexplained by a simpler model (where strategic interactions are not taken into account …

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution … is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate … this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy to illustrate how our multi-country approach to modelling oil …

This paper uses a new empirical strategy to identify oil supply news shocks within a Non-Causal VAR model of standard … global oil market variables. These shocks explain most of the movements in oil production over a long but finite time horizon …. Our findings highlight the prominent role of expectations in propagating shocks. Negative oil supply news shocks cause …

structural VAR of the oil market. A main finding is that global oil supply is rather vertical, practically all the time. Moreover …We focus on the implications of the shale oil boom for the global supply of oil. We begin with a stylized model with … for shale oil producers becomes more responsive to demand shocks when adjustment costs decline. On the empirical side, we …

above-ground crude oil inventories with the oil futures-spot spread. The latter is defined as the percent deviation of the … oil futures price from the spot price of oil and it represents a measure of the convenience yield but expressed with an …In this work, we propose an analysis of the global market for crude oil based on a revised version of the Structural …

oil prices. A four-model combination - consisting of futures, risk-adjusted futures, a Bayesian VAR and a DSGE model of …This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … to oil futures and the random walk over the period 1995Q1 - 2015Q2, including periods of stable, upwardly trending and …

discusses how to forecast future oil price movements based on information from both the oil futures market and the spot market …. In particular, we conduct a series of forecasting exercises and compare the performance of models that use oil futures …The price of oil has risen by about 60% since mid-2004 and by more than 40% since the beginning of 2005. Though the U …

forecast oil prices out-of-sample up to three months. Two of the models are based on the VAR methodology and consider … fundamental factors like the net long position and oil inventories. The third variant is a pure futures model. It is shown that …The present paper presents three different short-term oil models on a weekly basis. With these models we try to …

forecast oil prices out-of-sample up to three months. Two of the models are based on the VAR methodology and consider … fundamental factors like the net long position and oil inventories. The third variant is a pure futures model. It is shown that …The present paper presents three different short-term oil models on a weekly basis. With these models we try to …