We consider the detection of a change in persistence of a long range dependent time series. The usual approach is to use one-shot tests to detect a change in persistence a posteriori in a historical data set. However, as breaks can occur at any given time and data arrives steadily it is...

Summary In this paper we compare the unemployment dynamics of the US and Germany with monthly data up to 2008. With data from 1971 on the evidence is mixed when applying descriptive methods or formal unit root tests. When allowing for fractional integration, however, we find similar results to...

Information criteria, nonlinearity, additive outliers, innovative outliers, change in persistence, outlier detection. - Informationskriterien, Nichtlinearität, additive Ausreißer, innovative Ausreißer, Persistenzbruch, Ausreißerermittlung

In this paper we propose a likelihood ratio test for a change in persistence of a time series. We consider the null hypothesis of a constant persistence I(1) and an alternative in which the series changes from a stationary regime to a unit root regime and vice versa. Both known and unknown break...

We consider the detection of a change in persistence of a long range dependent time series. The usual approach is to use one-shot tests to detect a change in persistence a posteriori in a historical data set. However, as breaks can occur at any given time and data arrives steadily it is...