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When simple alternatives to Bayes formula work well : reducing the cognitive load when updating probability forecasts
Goodwin, Paul - In: Journal of business research : JBR 68 (2015) 8, pp. 1686-1691
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011317089
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Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?
Page, Lionel; Clemen, Robert Taylor - In: The economic journal : the journal of the Royal … 123 (2013) 568, pp. 491-513
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009754509
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Early warning with calibrated and sharper probabilistic forecasts
Machete, Reason L. - In: Journal of forecasting 32 (2013) 5, pp. 452-468
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009788808
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Is a 70 % forecast more accurate than a 30 % forecast? : how level of a forecast affects inferences about forecasts and forecasters
Bagchi, Rajesh; Ince, Elise Chandon - In: Journal of marketing research : JMR 53 (2016) 1, pp. 31-45
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011450360
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Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts
Smith, Leonard A.; Du, Hailiang; Suckling, Emma B.; … - 2014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344171
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An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models
Suckling, Emma B.; Smith, Leonard A. - 2014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344174
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What Can Probability Forecasts Tell Us About Inflation Risks?
Garcia, Juan A. - 2007
A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper estimates the degree of uncertainty and asymmetry in the probability forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775829
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Herding in Probabilistic Forecasts
Jia, Yanwei - 2020
Decision and policy makers often ask experts to forecast a future state. Experts, however, can be biased. In the … estimation. To this end, we consider a one-shot setting with one forecast per expert and show that our model is identifiable up …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825530
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Probabilistic access forecasting for improved offshore operations
Gilbert, Ciaran; Browell, Jethro; McMillan, David - In: International journal of forecasting 37 (2021) 1, pp. 134-150
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012692675
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Volatility forecasting revisited using Markov-switching with time-varying probability transition
Wang, Jiqian; Ma, Feng; Liang, Chao; Chen, Zhonglu - In: International journal of finance & economics : IJFE 27 (2022) 1, pp. 1387-1400
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012815077