This paper extends a standard New Keynesian model to describe the effects of anticipated shocks to inflation and forward-looking monetary policy. Using the data generated from this modified model suggests that overlooking these two factors in the standard Cholesky structural vector...

This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy on the UK economy based on a new, extensive real-time forecast data set. Employing the Romer–Romer identification approach we first construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations for the UK economy. We find that a 1 percentage point...

SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum, the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) took the opportunity of the first anniversary of this new institution to organise a joint conference in Berlin on 8-9 November 2011. The purpose of this event was...

In a neoclassical growth model with life-cycle households in which money is held to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint, the optimal steady state inflation rate is not the Friedman rule -- it is in excess of $20\%$. Lump-sum, age-independent money injections twist and flatten the lifetime...

This paper studies the interactions between loan loss provisioning rules, business cycle fluctuations and monetary policy in a model with nominal price rigidities, a borrowing cost channel and endogenous risk of default. We show that an empirically relevant backward-looking provisioning rule...

The paper investigates the impacts of the volatility of monetary policy on the economy in a DSGE model with financial frictions a la Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999). The model is estimated by the particle filter maximum likelihood estimator for the U.S. economy. Our results first show...

House prices are usually characterized by periods of long-lasting growth that lead to uncertainty concerning their persistence. This uncertainty is of special importance for central banks: the prolonged periods of rise followed by sudden fall in house prices are often associated with a credit...

This paper analyzes the impact of strained government finances on macroeconomic stability and the transmission of fiscal policy. Using a variant of the model by Curdia and Woodford (2009), we study a 'sovereign risk channel' through which sovereign default risk raises funding costs in the...

This paper uses a data-set including time series data on macroeconomic variables, loans, deposits and interest rates for the euro area in order to study the features of financial intermediation over the business cycle. We find that stylized facts for aggregate monetary and real variables are...

This paper contributes to a recent debate about the structural and institutional conditions under which discretion may be superior to timeless perspective. We show this is unlikely when the policy maker relies on a welfare-theoretic loss function obtained as a second-order approximation of...