The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower...

The first contribution of this paper is to develop a model that jointly accounts for the missing disinflation in the wake of the Great Recession and the subsequently observed inflation-less recovery. The key mechanism works through heterogeneous expectations that may durably lose their anchorage...

The present paper studies the effect of monetary policy on inflation and output within a New Keynesian model with Experience-Based Learning (EBL) that renders expectations heterogeneous across age groups. Under EBL, the age-distribution directly affects the composition of aggregate expectations...

We study the role of firm heterogeneity in affecting business cycle dynamics and optimal stabilization policy. Firms differ in their degree of cyclicality, and hence, exposure to aggregate risk, leading to firm-specific risk premia that influence resource allocations. The heterogeneous firm...

This paper discusses the role of sterilized foreign exchange (FX) interventions as a monetary policy instrument for emerging market economies in response to external shocks. We develop a model for a commodity-exporting small open economy in which FX intervention is considered as a balance sheet...

Using corpora of business cycle report sections dealing with monetary and fiscal policy issues from 1999 to 2017 and using methods of unsupervised text scaling (Slapin and Proksch, 2008; Lauderdale and Herzog, 2016), namely Wordfish and Wordshoal we scale the institutions' theoretical/ideological...

In a new Keynesian model with random search in the labor market, endogenous selection among heterogeneous workers amplifies fluctuations in unemployment and results in excess unemployment volatility relative to the efficient allocation. Recessions disproportionately affect lowproductivity...

We investigate how the business, credit and interest rate cycles affect the monetary transmission mechanism, using state-dependent local projection methods and data from 18 advanced economies. We exploit the time-series variation within countries, as well as cross-sectional variation across...

We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, en- compassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower...

Central banking in France from 1948 to 1973 was a paradigmatic example of an unconventional policy relying on quantities rather than on interest rates. Usual SVAR find no effect of policy shocks and support the common view that monetary policy was ineffective over this period. I argue that only...