Departures from full-information rational expectation models give rise to stock price wealth effects which introduce inefficient cyclical fluctuations in the economy. Waves of optimism/pessimism affect beliefs and asset prices which influence aggregate demand through expectation-driven wealth...

This paper estimates monetary policy shocks for Sweden between 1996-2019. I employ the Romer and Romer (2004) (R&R) approach and use annual forecasts of output growth and inflation to estimate monetary policy shocks. I complement the analysis with shocks from a recursive VAR including output,...

We study the nonlinearities present in a standard monetary labor search model modified to have two groups of workers facing exogenous differences in the job finding and separation rates. We use our setting to study the racial unemployment gap between Black and white workers in the US. A...

The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and...

We show that the impact of supply and monetary policy shocks on consumer prices is state-dependent. First, we let the data determine two inflation regimes and find that they are characterized by high and low inflation volatility. We then identify upstream supply shocks using instrumental...

DSGE models based on New Keynesian principles, which have been extended to allow for banking, the zero lower bound on interest rates (ZLB), and varying price duration, can account well for recent macroeconomic behavior across a variety of economies. These models Önd that active Öscal policy...

We examine whether low interest rates foster non-viable firms in Europe by analyzing two classes of firms: zombies and distressed. Controlling for the business cycle and recession periods, we find a significantly negative effect of short-term rates on the likelihood of being a zombie, while no...

The Financial Instability Hypothesis associated with Hyman Minsky has profound implications for the conduct of monetary policy in modern capitalist economies. At its core is the proposition that the central bank may contribute to the financial fragility of leveraged firms in its pursuit of...

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a...

We investigate the role of consumer confidence in the transmission of monetary policy shocks from an empirical and theoretical perspective. Standard VAR based analysis suggests that an empirical measure of consumer confidence drops significantly after a monetary tightening and amplifies the...