Forecasted mortality rates using mortality models proposed in the recent literature are sensitive to the sample size …. In this paper we propose a method based on Bayesian learning to determine model-specific posterior distributions of the … sample sizes. In particular, the sample size is included as an extra parameter in the parameter space of the mortality model …

Extrapolative methods are one of the most commonly-adopted forecasting approaches in the literature on projecting … future mortality rates. It can be argued that there are two types of mortality models using this approach. The first extracts …-parametric smoothing techniques to model mortality and thus has no explicit constraints placed on the model. We argue that from a …