We estimate the fiscal (spending) multiplier using quarterly U.S. data, 1986-2017. We define government spending shocks as actual minus expected expenditure growth, the latter obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We employ the ST-VAR model with the local projections method. A...

Despite the remarkable progress the literature has made throughout the past years in studying fiscal multipliers, estimates still vary considerably across studies. Partly, estimates differ because of context-specific variables that affect multipliers, but also because of the lack of a...

The search for political determinants of intergovernmental fiscal relations has shaped much of the recent literature on the economic viability of federalism. This study assesses the explanatory power of two competing views about intergovernmental transfers; one emphasizing the traditional...

We estimate the fiscal (spending) multiplier using quarterly U.S. data, 1986-2017. We define government spending shocks as actual minus expected expenditure growth, the latter obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We employ the ST-VAR model with the local projections method. A...

How do policy communications on future f iscal targets af fect market expectations and beliefs about the future conduct of f iscal policy? In this paper, we develop indicators of f iscal credibility that quantify the degree to which policy announcements anchor expectations, based on the...

Economic research shows that candidates have a higher chance of getting (re-)elected when they have the luck that the world economy does well even though this is beyond their control and unrelated to their competence. Psychological research demonstrates that candidates increase their chances if...

Venezuela's government presents a debt structure biased toward instruments with short maturities mostly held by international bankers. However, the government has access to windfall revenues associated to oil exports that enhance its creditworthiness. A version of Cole and Kehoe (2000) model of...

In December 2020 the European Council approved the regulation establishing the European Union (EU) Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2027 and the Next Generation EU recovery facility. Both mechanisms will help provide in the coming years for financing worth €1.8 trillion to sustain the...

This paper asks whether the post-Keynesian or New Keynesian paradigm provides a more realistic description of the effects of fiscal policy on output and consumption. I establish some macro and microeconomic stylized facts on fiscal multipliers and marginal propensities to consume based on the...