Dutch Disease is a condition in which a sudden increase of resource wealth from an extractive sector (such as oil, gas, coal, or mining) undermines other areas of the economy (such as agriculture, manufacturing, or tradeable services), shrinking them while spurring an appreciation in the real...

This paper studies future poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity outcomes using a panel data set with 150 countries over 1980-2014. The findings suggest that global extreme poverty will decrease in absolute and relative terms in the period 2015-2030. However, absolute poverty is likely to...

This paper uses a three-step Bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach in an environment of noisy and scarce data to estimate behavioral parameters for a computable general equilibrium model. The estimation also measures how labor-augmenting productivity and other structural parameters in the...

The paper introduces a Bayesian cross-entropy forecast (BCEF) procedure to assess the variance and skewness in density forecasting. The methodology decomposes the variance and skewness of the predictive distribution accounting for the shares of selected risk factors. The method assigns...

Moderate and gradual changes of the real exchange rate are beneficial for the economy to help it attain domestic and external equilibrium. They should not be feared. However, large and sharp devaluations can lead to insolvency and even systemic crisis. They should be prevented by macroprudential...

This paper studies future poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity outcomes using a panel data set with 150 countries over 1980-2014. The findings suggest that global extreme poverty will decrease in absolute and relative terms in the period 2015-2030. However, absolute poverty is likely to...

This paper uses a three-step Bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach in an environment of noisy and scarce data to estimate behavioral parameters for a computable general equilibrium model. The estimation also measures how labor-augmenting productivity and other structural parameters in the...

Growth in global trade has been slow since 2012. While global trade downturns are not unprecedented, the observed change in the relationship of trade to GDP poses the question whether the trade slowdown is a transitory deviation or a more long-lasting phenomenon brought about by structural...

This brief highlights the importance of the agribusiness sector as a pillar for development. It provides a framework to measure internationally traded agribusiness and discusses some patterns of world agribusiness trade in recent decades. The share of traded agribusiness goods in world trade has...