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The understanding of co-movements, dependence, and influence between variables of interest is key in many applications. Broadly speaking such understanding can lead to better predictions and decision making in many settings. We propose Quantile Graphical Models (QGMs) to characterize prediction...
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Many financial decisions, such as portfolio allocation, risk management, option pricing and hedge strategies, are based on forecasts of the conditional variances, covariances and correlations of financial returns. The paper shows an empirical comparison of several methods to predict...
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recently proposed data-driven volatility forecasting approach with daily data are used to study risk forecasting for …
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windows. Since the calculated default correlation depends on the VaR forecasts, analyses are performed for different quantiles …Regular or automated processes require reliable software applications that provide accurate volatility and Value … estimates and fails. VaR prognoses are produced for extreme quantiles (up to 99.9%) and three alternative distribution …
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