This paper investigates the effect of oil price shocks on government expenditures on the health and education sectors in Saudi Arabia. Using a quarterly dataset 1990Q1-2017Q2 and employing a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, our research shows evidence of a non-linear...

Education is a crucial determinant of child quality. Economic theory and empirical research suggest a trade-off between the quantity and quality of children. Larger families facing tighter constraints are likely to distribute resources among children unevenly, which can adversely affect...

We study the changing relationship between Brent oil prices and geopolitical risk, conditional on physical oil market conditions. We conduct the analysis at three frequencies, medium (1-3 years), high (2-3 months), and very high (daily), using three complementary techniques at the different...

This paper investigates the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. We employ a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model with 53 countries, including 15 MENA countries, over the period...

This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...