Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses … all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation … measures such as core inflation measures. This paper presents the “FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)” for CPI and …

(permanent change in the mean inflation rate). These datasets were used to test the performance of alternative underlying … inflation measures. We found that the benchmark underlying inflation measures (based on unobserved trend extraction) are more … underlying inflation measure …

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) inflation tail risk. We … estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk … indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes …

Trimmed-mean personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation does not clearly dominate PCE inflation excluding food … and energy in real-time forecasting of headline PCE inflation. However, trimmed-mean inflation is the superior … communications and policy tool because it has been a less-­biased real-time estimator of headline inflation and because it more …

Both theory and extant empirical evidence suggest that the cross-sectional asymmetry across disaggregated price indexes … might be useful in the forecasting of aggregate inflation. Trimmed-mean inflation estimators have been shown to be useful … devices for forecasting headline PCE inflation. But does this stem from their ability to signal the underlying trend, or does …