Both theory and extant empirical evidence suggest that the cross-sectional asymmetry across disaggregated price indexes … might be useful in the forecasting of aggregate inflation. Trimmed-mean inflation estimators have been shown to be useful … devices for forecasting headline PCE inflation. But does this stem from their ability to signal the underlying trend, or does …

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses … all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation … measures such as core inflation measures. This paper presents the “FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)” for CPI and …

In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize … is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting … headline inflation, assigns zero weight to import prices …

In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize … is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting … headline inflation, assigns zero weight to import prices …

Empirical evidence following conventional tests suggests that inflation expectations in Colombia might not be rational …, although the period of disinflation included in the sample makes it difficult to verify this conclusion. Inflation expectations … display close ties with observed past and present headline inflation and are affected by exogenous shocks in a possibly non …

Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive … treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core … and wage inflation have become less synchronized. Global factors (including commodity prices, world slack, exchange rates …

This paper provides an extensive literature review and analyses some open issues in the measurement of inflation that …. Consumer behaviour is characterised by preference shifts and heterogeneity, which influence the measurement of the cost of … "green" products. Furthermore, PRISMA data show that consumption baskets and thus inflation vary across income classes (e …

statistics in forecasting inflation has often been relegated to simple univariate or Phillips curve approaches, thus limiting … extreme trimmed-mean measure - the median CPI - improves the forecasts of both core and headline inflation (CPI and personal … consumption expenditures) across our set of monthly and quarterly BVARs. Although the inflation forecasting improvements are …