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Forecasting South Korea's presidential election via multiparty dynamic Bayesian modeling
Kang, Seungwoo; Oh, Hee-Seok - In: International journal of forecasting 40 (2024) 1, pp. 124-141
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014450263
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Polling and forecasting the general election of 2010
Whiteley, Paul F.; Clarke, Harold D.; Sanders, David; … - In: International journal of market research : JMRS ; the … 52 (2010) 5, pp. 687-691
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008688881
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Predicting elections : a "Wisdom of Crowds" approach
Boon, Martin - In: International journal of market research : JMRS ; the … 54 (2012) 4, pp. 465-483
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009576973
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The predictive power of political pundits : prescient or pitiful?
Metaxas, Phillip; Leigh, Andrew - 2013
Although Australian political pundits frequently make predictions about the future, little systematic evidence exists on the accuracy of these predictions. To assess the predictive power of experts, we survey the transcripts of two well-known political programs - Insiders and Meet the Press -...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009748356
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Incumbency and opportunity : forecasting trends in Nigeria's 2015 elections
Owen, Olly; Usman, Zainab - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291303
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Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections
Graefe, Andreas - 2014
.S. presidential elections. The majority of respondents correctly predicted the election winner in 193 (89%) of 217 surveys conducted … provided more accurate forecasts of election winners and vote shares than four established methods (vote intention polls … election campaigns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065305
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Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections
Benjamin, Daniel J.; Shapiro, Jesse M. - 2021
asked them to predict the election outcomes. The participants' predictions explain more than 20 percent of the variation in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013248716
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Political uncertainty and analysts' forecasts : international evidence
Boubakri, Narjess; Bouslimi, Lobna; Zhong, Rui - In: Journal of financial stability 59 (2022), pp. 1-15
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013284618
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Forecasting the 2013 Bundestag Election Using Data from Various Polls
Selb, Peter - 2013
) estimates of the party vote shares at the upcoming Bundestag election. In contrast to the predominant academic approach to … forecast incumbent vote shares from measures of government popularity, economic conditions and other fundamental variables … heat polls. Opposite to common practice in the news media, we do not take isolated polls as election forecasts in their own …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013077415
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Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections
Benjamin, Daniel J. - 2006
asked them to predict the election outcomes. The participants' predictions explain more than 20 percent of the variation in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466001