This article examines the short-term effects of expensive oil on the supply and demand patterns for conventional weapons. It pools the cross-section and time-series data on petroleum and arms trade, and uses a crossed-error regression model to estimate these effects for three groups of...

An understanding of why states fight wars requires an understanding of why they end wars. These phenomena form interrelated parts of a larger process of interstate bargaining. Yet, compared to the research on the outbreak of wars, there has been much less attention paid to their termination....

The theory of power cycles contends that the growth and decline of national power holds the key to understanding the occurrence of extensive wars. Certain critical points in a state’s power trajectory are especially dangerous occasions for such armed clashes. The power cycles of nine...