In addition to quantitative assessment of economic growth using econometric models, business cycle analyses have been proved to be helpful to practitioners in order to assess current economic conditions or to anticipate upcoming fluctuations. In this paper, we focus on the acceleration cycle in...

This article tests the Black's hypothesis in five crisis-affected Asian countries (India, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand). The hypothesis posits that economies face a positive relationship between output growth and output volatility. Using monthly data of the industrial production...

This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents...

Using a dynamic factor model that allows for changes in both the long-run growth rate of output and the volatility of business cycles, we document a significant decline in long-run output growth in the United States. Our evidence supports the view that most of this slowdown occurred prior to the...

The current study examines the relationship between GDP fluctuations and private investment by using macro panel approach in a panel of five selected South Asian countries (SSAC) including Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka for the period of 1980-2010. The study applies modern...

This paper analyzes the evolution of the Lebanese GDP growth rate over the period 1970- 2019 by estimating two kinds of switching models: The Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model and the model of the Markov process. These models show, on the one hand, asymmetries in the evolution of GDP...

This paper presents a stress indicator for the eurozone that summarizes developments of trends and cycles in real GDP and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country's actual short-term interest rate and the interest rate that would...

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...

This paper studies the relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and output growth using an approach based on labor market flows. The framework shows why the Okun coefficient may be constant/time-varying and/or symmetric/asymmetric and that the outcome lies with the behavior of...

We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical...