between Romania and the Eurozone cannot be rejected, despite the rapid disinflation at the beginning of the sample. …

distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are … (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is …. Our findings bear important implications for the ECB forecasting process and ultimately for its communication strategy. …

distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are … (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is …. Our findings bear important implications for the ECB forecasting process and ultimately for its communication strategy. …

underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … most pronounced at intermediate forecasting horizons. This suggests that inflation is projected to revert towards the … target too quickly. These results cannot be fully explained by the persistence embedded in the forecasting models nor by …

forecasting and vector autoregression (VAR) models. When we estimate Treasury yield responses to the shocks identified in the VAR …