Recent empirical evidence suggests that reversing current account balances imply costly adjustment processes leading to reduced economic growth. Using large panel data sets to analyze determinants and costs of reversals asks for controls of heterogeneity among countries. This paper contributes a...

In this paper we discuss parameter identification and likelihood evaluation for multinomial multiperiod Probit models. It is shown in particular that the standard autoregressive specification used in the literature can be interpreted as a latent common factor model. However, this specification...

We study the modelling of large data sets of high frequency returns using a long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model. Issues pertaining to estimation and forecasting of datasets using the LMSV model are studied in detail. Furthermore, a new method of de-seasonalising the volatility in high...

Most dimension reduction methods based on nonparametric smoothing are highly sensitive to outliers and to data coming from heavy tailed distributions. We show that the recently proposed MAVE and OPG methods by Xia et al. (2002) allow us to make them robust in a relatively straightforward way...

A definition of selfinformative Bayes carriers or limits is given as a description of an approach to noninformative Bayes estimation in non- and semiparametric models. It takes the posterior w.r.t. a prior as a new prior and repeats this procedure again and again. A main objective of the paper...

This paper gives a selective review on the recent developments of nonparametric methods in continuous-time finance, particularly in the areas of nonparametric estimation of diffusion processes, nonparametric testing of parametric diffusion models, and nonparametric pricing of derivatives. For...

Stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs for short) appear naturally in the description of many processes, e.g. in population dynamics with a time lag due to an age-dependent birth rate (Scheutzow 1981), in economics where a certain "time to build" is needed (Kydland and Prescott 1982) or...

In some applications, the population characteristics of main interest can be found in the tails of the distribution function. The study of risk of extreme events will lead to the use of probability distributions and the scenarios that correspond to the tail of these distributions. Considering...

In a lot of situations, variables are measured with errors. While this problem has been previously studied in the kontext of kernel regression, no work has been done in quantile regression. To estimate this function we use deconvoluting kernel estimators. The asymptotic behaviour of these...