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Hirschauer, Norbert; Grüner, Sven; Mußhoff, Oliver; … - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 14 (2020) 2020-7, pp. 1-14

Replication crisis and debates about p-values have raised doubts about what we can statistically infer from research findings, both in experimental and observational studies. With a view to the ongoing debate on inferential errors, this paper systematizes and discusses experimental designs with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012169095

Can p-values be meaningfully interpreted without random sampling?

Hirschauer, Norbert; Grüner, Sven; Mußhoff, Oliver; … - In: Statistics Surveys 14 (2020), pp. 71-91

Besides the inferential errors that abound in the interpretation of p-values, the probabilistic pre-conditions (i.e. random sampling or equivalent) for using them at all are not often met by observational studies in the social sciences. This paper systematizes different sampling designs and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012197907

Inference in dynamic discrete choice problems under local misspecification

Bugni, Federico A.; Ura, Takuya - In: Quantitative Economics 10 (2019) 1, pp. 67-103

inference in these models. Specifically, we consider a local misspecification framework in which specification errors are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012215367

Identification- and singularity-robust inference for moment condition models

Andrews, Donald W. K.; Guggenberger, Patrik - In: Quantitative Economics 10 (2019) 4, pp. 1703-1746

identification inference moment conditions robust singular variance subvector test test weak identification weak instruments C10 C12 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012215408

Inference in Epidemic Models without Likelihoods

McKinley, Trevelyan; Cook, Alex; Deardon, Robert - In: International Journal of Biostatistics 5 (2009) 1, pp. 1171-1171

Likelihood-based inference for epidemic models can be challenging, in part due to difficulties in evaluating the … algorithms for parameter inference, where the routines are based on approximate likelihoods generated from model simulations. We … Congo and discuss situations in which we think simulation-based inference may be preferable to likelihood-based inference. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005046659

Non-Robust Dynamic Inferences from Macroeconometric Models: Bifurcation Stratification of Confidence Regions

Barnett, William; Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna - Department of Economics, University of Kansas - 2006

Grandmont (1985) found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models are stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with all forms of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005106594

Learning multiple belief propagation fixed points for real time inference

Furtlehner, Cyril; Lasgouttes, Jean-Marc; Auger, Anne - In: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 389 (2010) 1, pp. 149-163

In the context of inference with expectation constraints, we propose an approach based on the “loopy belief propagation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011061206

Biased Judgment in Censored Environments

Feiler, Daniel C.; Tong, Jordan D.; Larrick, Richard P. - In: Management Science 59 (2013) 3, pp. 573-591

Some environments constrain the information that managers and decision makers can observe. We examine judgment in <i>censored environments</i> where a constraint, the <i>censorship point</i>, systematically distorts the observed sample. Random instances beyond the censorship point are observed at the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990587

Imprecise Data Sets as a Source of Ambiguity: A Model and Experimental Evidence

Arad, Ayala; Gayer, Gabrielle - In: Management Science 58 (2012) 1, pp. 188-202

In many circumstances, evaluations are based on empirical data. However, some observations may be imprecise, meaning that it is not entirely clear what occurred in them. We address the question of how beliefs are formed in these situations. The individual in our model is essentially a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990623

Estimating welfare indices : household weights and sample design

Cowell, Frank A.; Jenkins, Stephen - 2000

The techniques of simple random sampling are seldom appropriate in the empirical analysis of income distributions. Various types of weighting schemes are usually required either from the point of view of welfare-economic considerations (the mapping of household/family distributions into...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011433685