This paper incorporates content analysis of 495 drafts of 70 presidential speeches gathered from the archives of all ten presidencies from Franklin Roosevelt to George H.W. Bush to measure the changes to drafts of presidential speeches as they move through the White House speech drafting and...

This article identifies six fundamental indicators that might predict a financial crisis similar to the one that affected the emerging markets of Southeast Asia. Our empirical analysis shows that the 1997 Asian crisis could have been predicted. Probit estimation reveals that a small number of...

Data revisions routinely introduced by the World Bank can lead to significant revisions in empirical results. We show this by re-estimating our aggregate indicator for predicting the 1997 Asian crisis utilizing the 1999 and 2004 updates of the 1996 World Bank data and comparing these results to...

The financial crises that have occurred in recent decades, affecting the entire international financial system and beyond, have highlighted the existing gaps in the models of country risk analysis, models that cannot provide, in most cases, an anticipation of the collapse. The crisis...

This paper does two things. First it examines the use of real time inter-annual cash data and the role of early interventions for improving the monitoring of national fiscal policies and the correction of fiscal indiscipline. Early warnings are important because they allow us to spread the...

The use of real-time cash data allows us to make accurate intra-annual forecasts of an economy’s fiscal position, and to issue early warning signals for the need to correct fiscal imbalances. This paper shows how those signals can be used to design the necessary fiscal corrections, and...