The degree to which a change in exchange rate is reflected in changes in the domestic prices is termed exchange rate pass through (ERPT). In this work, we trace the evolutionary path of the ERPT to domestic prices in The Gambia using 60 windows of rolling VARs from 2002m1 to 2012m12. Our...

Wagner’s law relates the positive nexus between public spending and economic activity, where greater economic activity leads to increased public spending. This paper examines the validity of this hypothesis for The Gambia for the period 1977-2013. Using econometric techniques of ARDL bounds...

This paper investigates the predictive power of the yield spread on future industrial production growth and recession in Turkey. Employing the linear regression model we find that the yield spread has predictive power when forecasting industrial production growth. The results also suggest that...

We provide probability forecasts of key Turkish macroeconomic variables such as inflation and output growth. The probability forecasts are derived from a core vector error correction model of the Turkish economy and its several variants. We use model and window averaging to address uncertainties...

In this study we investigate the yield curve forecasting performance of Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model (DNS), affine term structure VAR model (ATSM VAR) and principal component model (PC) in Turkey. We also investigate the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the yield curve. We have...