hierarchically by export destination and product category. We apply existing state of the art methods in forecast reconciliation and … forecasts, reconciliation also leads to improvements in forecast accuracy. …

entropy to tilt one-step ahead and long-horizon VAR forecasts to match the nowcast and long-horizon forecast from the Survey … of Professional Forecasters. The results indicate meaningful gains in multi-horizon forecast accuracy relative to model …, including those that are not directly tilted but are affected through spillover effects from tilted variables. The forecast …

exploit many predictors, and this chapter surveys these methods. The first group of methods considered is forecast combination … (forecast pooling), in which a single forecast is produced from a panel of many forecasts. The second group of methods is based … increasingly precise as the number of series increases) can be used to forecast individual economic variables. The third group of …

We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …

. -- Directional forecasts ; directional accuracy ; forecast evaluation ; testing independence ; contingency tables ; bootstrap …