In this paper we derive a Phillips curve with a role for higher order expectations of marginal cost and future inflation. We introduce a small idiosyncratic component in firms' marginal costs and let the economywide average marginal cost be unobservable to the individual firm. The model can then...

This paper introduces unemployment hysteresis into a tractable New Keynesian three equation model using an insider-outsider labour market. We demonstrate that strict inflation targeting can lead to a unit root in the unemployment rate, but dual mandate monetary policy can stabilise the economy...

This paper analyses the post-pandemic inflation dynamics in Canada using a behavioral macroeconomic model of the Bank of Canada. Two crucial behavioral assumptions in line with empirical evidence characterize the model: firms make price-quantity decisions according to a simple heuristic rule and...

A vast literature has documented how US inflation persistence has fallen in recent decades, but this finding is difficult to explain in monetary models. Using survey data on inflation expectations, I document a positive co-movement between ex-ante average forecast errors and forecast revisions...

We analyze the impact of shifts in the industrial composition of the economy on the distribution of the frequency of price change and its consequences for the slope of the Phillips curve for the United States. By combining product-level microdata on the frequency of price change with data on...

We incorporate adaptive learning-based inflation expectations in an Unobserved Components model in order to study the link between inflation and the output gap. The forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve serves as the backbone for modeling inflation dynamics. We find that learning based...

Monetary policy is often analysed in terms of simple rules. Such rules may be useful for many purposes, even when they do not describe the actual monetary policy strategy exactly. This paper compares monetary policy in Sweden during the inflation-targeting regime 19932002 with the policies...