We conduct a series of forecasting experiments to examine how people update their beliefs upon observing others' forecasts. We show that people insufficiently update their beliefs, and that this tendency is only partially explained by the better than average effect. We document that subjects...

I document that momentum trading strategies are significantly profitable in an intragame NBA sports betting market. The momentum profits appear to be the result of market underreaction to news, but I find no evidence that the underreaction is driven by the psychological biases that form the...

We use the popular television show Mad Money hosted by Jim Cramer to test theories of attention and limits to arbitrage. Stock recommendations on Mad Money constitute attention shocks to a large audience of individual traders. We find that stock recommendations lead to large overnight returns...

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...

We use the popular television show <i>Mad Money</i>, hosted by Jim Cramer, to test theories of attention and limits to arbitrage. Stock recommendations on <i>Mad Money</i> constitute attention shocks to a large audience of individual traders. We find that stock recommendations lead to large overnight returns...