The Taylor rule establishes a simple linear relation between the interest rate, inflation and output gap. However, this relation may not be so simple. To get a deeper understanding of central banks’ behaviour, this paper asks whether central banks are indeed following a linear Taylor rule or,...

Desde a década de 50 que um grupo de países tem vindo a evidenciar níveis de inflação elevados durante longos períodos de tempo sem que as necessárias medidas de estabilização sejam adoptadas com a devida celeridade. Essas medidas são muitas vezes adiadas, sendo os respectivos...

One widespread idea in the business cycles literature is taht the older is an expansion or contraction, the more likely it is to end. This paper tries to provide further empirical support for this idea of positive duration dependence and, at the same time, control for the effects of other...

This paper tries to explain why high inflation levels persist during long periods of time, in several countries affected by chronic inflation, without the necessary corrective measures being implemented. Political models of conflict explain these delays as the result of coordination problems...