We explore whether economic links via trade affect aggregate Chinese stock market returns. We find that market return indices from countries that China net exports from can forecast the Chinese aggregate market return at the weekly time horizon. Countries that China net exports to have no...

This paper builds on the recent debate on the in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of US aggregate returns using a wide range of predictors by providing new evidence for smaller and less market-oriented European countries. We find evidence that macro and technical predictors can...

This paper finds significant evidence that commodity price changes can predict industry-level returns for horizons between one trading day and up to six trading weeks (30 days). We find that for the 1985-2010 period, 40 out of 49 U.S. industries can be predicted by at least one commodity. Our...