We develop a model of a small region with durable housing, endogenous home maintenance, and disaster expectations, in which hurricane strike damage is a function of maintenance decisions. The model implies that declining areas (relative to growing areas) have a less well-maintained housing...

Two competing paradigms to modelling the impacts of regional economic shocks have arisen: ‘disequilibrium’ models, which predict that regional economies eventually fully recover, and ‘no-equilibrium’ models, which predict economic shocks have a permanent effect. To address this...

Empirical models of regional adjustment often control for aggregate effects when estimating the impact of region-specific shocks on local economies. It is, however, difficult to filter out the effects of aggregate shocks—such as oil shocks, uncertainty shocks, or national recessions—because...