Japanese Abstract: 世に言う『財政規律』によれば少なくとも長期的には財政収支が均衡することを求められる。一方，最近話題のMMT (Modern Monetary...

Households are subject to substantial tail risk in individual labor income, and the amount of income risk fluctuates over the business cycle. This paper proposes a New Keynesian production-based asset pricing model where idiosyncratic labor income risk is a key source of priced risk in equity...

The paper studies the dynamic macroeconomic effects of fiscal shocks of various duration (permanent and temporary) under different financing methods (lump-sum tax and government debt). To this end, we develop an intertemporal macroeconomic model for a small open economy, featuring monopolistic...

William Stanley Jevons’s “Sunspot Theory” of business cycles related the number of spots on the sun to economic activity, primarily through the weather and agriculture, but also through psychological components like optimism and uncertainty. The theory is widely discredited, but John...

It is widely agreed that the Nasdaq during the dot-com era 20 years ago was a full-fledged stock market bubble. Recently, the US stock market according to many metrics has become significantly more speculative and overvalued than it was at the dot-com peak 20 years ago. In both instances, a very...

This paper traces the evolution of John Maynard Keynes’s theory of the business cycle from his early writings in 1913 to his policy prescriptions for the control of fluctuations in the early 1940s. The paper identifies six different “theories” of business fluctuations. With different...

This paper offers a simulation-based method for the estimation of heuristic switching in nonlinear macroeconomic models. Heuristic switching is an important feature of modeling strategy since it uses simple decision rules of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents. The simulation study shows...

I review the literature on financial speculation driven by belief disagreements from a macroeconomics perspective. To highlight unifying themes, I develop a stylized macroeconomic model that embeds several mechanisms. With short-selling constraints, speculation can generate overvaluation and...

In several publications, starting more than a decade ago, Peter Flaschel and co-authors have outlined the features of a 'social capitalism' as a normative alternative to the liberal and financialised capitalism of the Anglo-Saxon type, but also to the undemocratic Chinese-type of state...

We develop a two-sector New Keynesian model to analyze the inflationary effects of climate policies. Climate policies do not force a central bank to tolerate higher inflation, but may generate a tradeoff between the central bank's objectives for inflation and real activity. The presence and size...