In this paper, I study decision theory in the presence of imperfect recall. I use an extension of the standard strategy concept for the analysis of extensive form games in order to examine the range of imperfect recall problems for which there exists an optimal solution. Optimality is assessed...

In this paper, I seek to establish a framework in which solutions to imperfect recall decision problems can be suitably examined. I introduce a strategy concept which is an extension of the standard concept employed since von Neumann and Morgenstern, and show how it may provide optimal solutions...

We examine the traditional deterrence game between Challenger and Defender. We treat two variations of the game - the complete information game and the one-sided information game where the first mover, Challenger, is the uncertain player. We employ sequential decision theory to analyze the game...

Stimulated by Frank Knight's work, "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit," I present a theory of innovation based on what I term Knightian decision theory. This theory includes a concept of uncertainty aversion, a behavioral property that makes people reluctant to undertake new unevaluatable risks. This...

This paper addresses a very profound question concerning financial accounting. Is financial accounting measurement. as represented by diverse valuation rules. hodgepodge or is it logically developed? Salvary [1985. p.28. Chap. IV] advances and provides a theoretical development of the concept of...

If each member of a group assigns a certain probability to a hypothesis, what probability should the collective as a whole assign? More generally, how should individual probability functions be merged into a single collective one? I investigate this question in case that the individual...

We examine the implications of decision theory for religious choice and evangelism, under the assumption that people choose their religion. The application of decision theory leads us to a broad definition of religion and a particular definition of faith, each related to the uncertainty...

This note revisits the problem of selection bias, using a simple binomial example. It focuses on selection that is introduced by observing the data and making decisions prior to formal statistical analysis. Decision rules and interpretation of confidence measure and results must then be taken...

This paper explores the use of heuristic search algorithms for modeling human decision making. It is shown that this algorithm is consistent with many observed behavioral regularities, and may help explain deviations from rational choice. The main insight is that the heuristic function can be...