We propose a one-month market-timing model constructed from 15 diverse variables. We use weighted least squares with stepwise variable selection to build a predictive model for the one-month-ahead market excess returns. From our statistical model, we transform our forecasts into investable...

The fair value of an option is given by breakeven volatility, the value of implied volatility that sets the profit and loss of a delta-hedged option to zero. We calculate breakeven volatility for 400,000 options traded on the S&P 500 Index, and we build a predictive model for these volatility...

Revisiting the issue of return predictability, we show there is substantial predictive power in combining forecasting variables. We apply correlation screening to combine twenty variables that have been proposed in the return predictability literature, and demonstrate forecasting power at a...

Commonality in idiosyncratic volatility cannot be completely explained by time-varying volatility. We decompose the common factor in idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) of Herskovic et al. (2016) into two components: idiosyncratic volatility innovations (VIN) and time-varyingidiosyncratic volatility...