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Challenges and Choices: Modelling New Zealand’s Long-term Fiscal Position
Bell, Matthew; Blick, Gary; Parkyn, Oscar; Rodway, Paul; … - Treasury, Government of New Zealand - 2010
This working paper provides further detail on the modelling behind Challenges and Choices – New Zealand’s Long-Term Fiscal Statement, published on 29 October 2009. Building on the first Statement of 2006, we construct two main fiscal scenarios over a 40- year horizon. The historic trends...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008603113
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Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections
Creedy, John; Makale, Kathleen - 2013
This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011 …-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by … build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115642
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Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections
Creedy, John; Scobie, Grant M - 2002
It is widely recognised that as the population ages there will be potentially significant implications for a wide range … requires estimates of the possible future path of public spending. This paper presents projections for 14 categories of social … spending. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115515
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Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections
Creedy, John; Makale, Kathleen - Treasury, Government of New Zealand - 2013
This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011 …-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by … build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010639517
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Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections
Creedy, John; Scobie, Grant M - Treasury, Government of New Zealand - 2002
It is widely recognised that as the population ages there will be potentially significant implications for a wide range … requires estimates of the possible future path of public spending. This paper presents projections for 14 categories of social … spending. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005464962
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Fiscal Consolidation : Part 3. Long-Run Projections and Fiscal Gap Calculations
Merola, Rossana; Sutherland, Douglas - 2012
During the economic and financial crisis, fiscal positions across the OECD countries deteriorated sharply. This raises the question of what level of primary deficit would ensure long-term sustainability and what degree of consolidation is needed. The purpose of this paper is to gauge the scale...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014174091
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Social expenditure in New Zealand : stochastic projections
Creedy, John; Makale, Kathleen - In: New Zealand economic papers 48 (2014) 2, pp. 196-208
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010375412
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The scale of PayGo in the mid-long term projections of Stability Programs of European Countries. How much active people and workers will have to contribute to finance welfare
SALERNO, Nicola Carmine - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2013
Mid-long term projections of the Stability Programs (SP) are elaborated to simulate the burden each active citizen or … worth mentioning that projections in the (SP) are those developed by the Ageing Working Group (Awg), a task force Ecofin … created in purpose to investigate the effects of population ageing on the sustainability of public finances across Europe …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011112866
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The gains from early intervention in Europe: Fiscal surveillance and fiscal planning using cash data
Hughes Hallett, Andrew; Kuhn, Moritz; Warmedinger, Thomas - 2010
This paper does two things. First it examines the use of real time inter-annual cash data and the role of early interventions for improving the monitoring of national fiscal policies and the correction of fiscal indiscipline. Early warnings are important because they allow us to spread the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605266
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The gains from early intervention in Europe : fiscal surveillance and fiscal planning using cash data
Hughes Hallett, Andrew; Kuhn, Moritz; Warmedinger, Thomas - 2010
This paper does two things. First it examines the use of real time inter-annual cash data and the role of early interventions for improving the monitoring of national fiscal policies and the correction of fiscal indiscipline. Early warnings are important because they allow us to spread the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003986633