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We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...
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allocation and risk management require estimates of the volatility of these factors. While realized volatility has become a … provide a statistical approach to estimate the volatility of these factors. The efficacy of this approach relative to the use … of models based on squared returns is demonstrated for forecasts of the market volatility and a portfolio allocation …
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Mots-clés de l'auteur: Return Predictability ; Return Seasonality ; Asset Pricing Anomalies ; Intraday Returns …
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I generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences from Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible...
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