Echo State Neural Networks (ESN) were applied to forecast the realized variance time series of 19 major stock market indices. Symmetric ESN and asymmetric AESN models were constructed and compared with the benchmark realized variance models HAR and AHAR that approximate the long memory of the...

We will investigate valuation of derivatives with payoff defined as a nonlinear though close to linear function of tradable underlying assets. Derivatives involving Libor or swap rates in arrears, i.e. rates paid in a wrong time, are a typical example. It is generally tempting to replace the...

The goal of the Basle II regulatory formula is to model the unexpected loss on a loan portfolio. The regulatory formula is based on an asymptotic portfolio unexpected default rate estimation that is multiplied by an estimate of the loss given default parameter. This simplification leads to a...

The paper proposes a new method to estimate correlation of account level Basle II Loss Given Default (LGD). The correlation determines the probability distribution of portfolio level LGD in the context of a copula model which is used to stress the LGD parameter as well as to estimate the LGD...