We develop a theory of financial intermediary leverage cycles in the context of a dynamic model of the macroeconomy. The interaction between a production sector, a financial intermediation sector, and a household sector gives rise to amplification of fundamental shocks that affect real economic...

Mit der Krise im Euroraum hat die Frage nach der institutionellen Ausgestaltung der Währungsunion an Bedeutung gewonnen. Ein Problem im Hinblick auf die längerfristige Stabilität des Euroraums ist das Fehlen von Mechanismen, die nur in einzelnen Ländern auftretende konjunkturelle Schocks...

With the crisis in the euro area, the issue of the institutional structure of the monetary union has gained in significance. One problem with regard to the longer-term stability of the euro area is the absence of mechanisms to adequately absorb asymmetric cyclical shocks in the individual member...

This paper provides evidence on the effect of fiscal stimulus on economic activity in countries with different degrees of institutional quality. The identification strategy makes use of data on military expenditure to instrument government consumption using local lineal projections as presented...

Using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we analyse the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In particular, we test to which extent the heterogeneity, updating and ex-post performance of predictions for inflation, real GDP...

This paper applies Hyman Minsky’s approach to provide an analysis of the causes of the global financial crisis. Rather than finding the origins in recent developments, this paper links the crisis to the long-term transformation of the economy from a robust financial structure in the 1950s to...

After decades using monetary aggregates as the main instrument of monetary policy and having different varieties of crawling peg exchange rate regimes, Colombia adopted a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime in 1999, with inflation as the nominal anchor, a floating exchange rate, and the...

We present an accessible narrative of the Turkish economy since its great 2001 crisis. We broadly survey economic developments and pay particular attention to monetary policy. The data suggests that the Central Bank of Turkey was a strong inflation targeter early in this period but began to pay...

This paper studies the question of the economic scale of financial institutions. We show that banks actively smooth book equity by adjusting payouts to achieve a desired trajectory of book equity. The countercyclical nature of net payouts of financial institutions leads to procyclical book...

We present an accessible narrative of the Turkish economy since its great 2001 crisis. We broadly survey economic developments and pay particular attention to monetary policy. The data suggests that the Central Bank of Turkey was a strong inflation targeter early in this period but began to pay...