A dynamic factor VAR model, estimated by MCMC simulation, is employed to assess the relative severity of post-war U.S. recessions. Joint modeling and estimation of all model unknowns yields rank estimates that fully account for parameter uncertainty. A convenient by-product of the simulation...

This paper analyzes the daily incidence of violence during the Second Intifada. We compare several alternative statistical models with different dynamic and structural stability characteristics while keeping modelling complexity to a minimum by only maintaining the assumption that the process...

This article estimates a partially linear model that permits non-linearities of unspecified form in the school quality-earnings relationship. It examines the joint effect of teacher education and pupil-teacher ratios on 1990 earnings using NLSY data. It finds some evidence of non-linearities in...

We describe a new and flexible framework for modeling school effects. Like previous work in this area, we introduce an empirical model that evaluates school performance on the basis of student level test-score gains. Unlike previous work, however, we introduce a flexible model that relates...

This paper outlines an approach to Bayesian semiparametric regression in multiple equation models which can be used to carry out inference in seemingly unrelated regressions or simultaneous equations models with nonparametric components. The approach treats the points on each nonparametric...

This paper outlines an approach to Bayesian semiparametric regression in multiple equation models which can be used to carry out inference in seemingly unrelated regressions or simultaneous equations models with nonparametric components. The approach treats the points on each nonparametric...

Basic principles of Bayesian statistics and econometrics are reviewed. The topics covered include point and interval estimation, hypothesis testing, prediction, model building and choice of prior. We also review in very general terms recent advances in computational methods and illustrate the...

The decisions to attend college are analysed and nonparametric predictions compared to those obtained from the widely used logit model. The impacts of measured cognitive ability and proxies for high school quality on the decisions to attend college are examined for a sample of white and black...