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In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the accuracy, unbiasedness, and the efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze a large panel of individual forecasts that has not been analyzed in the literature so far. We provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for all G7...
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shortcomings. In order to achieve a better evaluation result, we put forward a new model named FLI-GA (Fuzzy logic inference … evaluate certain enterprise performance, and its evaluation results are more accurate than fuzzy logic inference method …
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compose the committee of more or less biased experts. We find that due to strategic voting, her optimal composition depends …A committee of experts votes between a multi-attribute alternative and status quo. Each expert is a biased specialist … non-monotonically on the majority rule. The composition is, however, less crucial if experts can be uninformed …
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