We analyze the redistributive role played by governments during the 1990s expansionary economic cycle in several OECD countries. We find a duality among countries: while governments in the Euro-area play a crucial role in the redistributive process, government interventions reduce the...

In order to perform real-time business cycle inferences and forecasts of GDP growth rates in the euro area, we use an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the features of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments, such as ragged edges, mixed...

We show that an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the specificities of the day to day monitoring of economic developments such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions is a good tool to forecast the Euro area recessions in real time. We...

One of the most extended empirical stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States is the positive autocorrelation of output growth. This paper shows that the positive autocorrelation can be better captured by shifts between business cycle states rather than by the standard view of...

What is the meaning of green shoots? In this paper we provide a statistical definition of this term which allows us to analyze where, when and how the recovery started. With the same methodology, we coform that the symptoms of recovery are clear in the US, the Euro area and Spain with some...