This paper proposes a parsimonious threshold stochastic volatility (SV) model for financial asset returns. Instead of imposing a threshold value on the dynamics of the latent volatility process of the SV model, we assume that the innovation of the mean equation follows a threshold distribution...

We introduce a new class of adaptive Metropolis algorithms called adaptive sticky algorithms for efficient general-purpose simulation from a target probability distribution. The transition of the Metropolis chain is based on a multiple-try scheme and the different proposals are generated by...

Interactions between the eurozone and US booms and busts and among major eurozone economies are analyzed by introducing a panel Markov-switching VAR model well suitable for a multi-country cyclical analysis. The model accommodates changes in low and high data frequencies and endogenous...

A tree-structured linear and quantile regression framework is proposed for the analysis and modeling of equity market returns. The approach is based on the idea of a binary tree, where every terminal node parameterizes a local regression model for a specific partition of the data. A Bayesian...

This paper establishes the following: Random Utility Models (RUMs) that assume consistent preferences result in inconsistent and therefore irrational choice behavior. Paradoxically, it is possible to create RUMs that result in consistent choice behavior, but these models assume inconsistent...

To avert the impending global Cyber-Finance Insurance Crisis based upon large-scale commercial reliance upon quantitative models with inherent model risks, tail risks, and systemic risks in current form, this post-doctoral thesis makes the following key contributions: Develops the first known...

Data insufficiency and reporting threshold are two main issues in operational risk modelling. When these conditions are present, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) may produce very poor parameter estimates. In this study, we first investigate four methods to estimate the parameters of truncated...

We provide an approach to forecasting the long-run (unconditional distribution of equity returns making optimal use of historical data in the presence of structural breaks. Our focus is on learning about breaks in real time and assessing their impact on out-of-sample density forecasts. Forecasts...

Stocks and other financial assets are traded at prices that lie on a fixed grid determined by the minimum tick size permitted in the market. Consequently, observed prices and quoted spreads do not correspond to the equilibrium prices and true spreads that would exist in a market with no minimum...

This paper analyses features of 28 provincial growth-cycles in China's economy from March 1989 to July 2009. We study the multivariate synchronization of provincial cycles and the selection of the number of cycles phases' by means of panel Markov-switching models. We obtain evidence that growth...