This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

This article analyzes the presence of a price bubble in the new house market for the Greater Santiago. For the above use di®erent methodologies on the Real Housing Prices Index (IRPV) prepared by CEC-CChC, all of which reject the presence of a housing bubble in the concerned market.

In this study, we compare the Hodrick-Prescott Filter technique concerning the Fractional filtering technique, which has recently started to be used in various applied sciences, i.e., physics, engineering, and biology. We apply these filtering techniques to the quarterly GDP data of Turkey,...

Bootstrap procedures based on instrumental variable (IV) estimates or t-statistics are generally invalid when the instruments are weak. The bootstrap may even fail when applied to identification-robust test statistics. For subvector inference based on the Anderson-Rubin (AR) statistic, Wang and...

Calendar anomalies are a class of financial market phenomena which links periodic, time-specific dummy variables and variations in the market price of an asset. Prior studies which report a calendar anomaly are seen by some as refutations of the efficient market hypothesis. In this paper, we...

This paper develops a systematic procedure of statistical inference for the ARMA model with unspecified and heavy-tailed heteroscedastic noises. We first investigate the least absolute deviation estimator (LADE) and the self-weighted LADE for the model. Both estimators are shown to be strongly...

This manuscript provides an introduction to statistics and probability method. It is structured around three themes developed in five chapters. The first part is an introduction to probability calculations in which we introduce the notions of elementary probability, probabilized spaces, random...

This paper develops a systematic procedure of statistical inference for the ARMA model with unspecified and heavy-tailed heteroscedastic noises. We first investigate the least absolute deviation estimator (LADE) and the self-weighted LADE for the model. Both estimators are shown to be strongly...

This article analyzes the presence of a price bubble in the new house market for the Greater Santiago. For the above use di®erent methodologies on the Real Housing Prices Index (IRPV) prepared by CEC-CChC, all of which reject the presence of a housing bubble in the concerned market.

In this paper, we develop methods of the determination of the rank of random matrix. Using the matrix perturbation theory to construct or find a suitable bases of the kernel (null space) of the matrix and to determine the limiting distribution of the estimator of the smallest singular values. We...